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Market Insight
02-Mar-2025
Tankers
VLCC
This week has been largely quiet East of Suez, IE week in London having a noticeable affect on proceedings. But what of the detail? Well, we’ve been in a rather volatile market of late, short ups and downs in rates in the East. Neither lasting very long. But the key being the volatility. Rates are presently in the very high WS 50s to China. In the West, a lack of USG business this week has been evident, tonnage levels have grown in the Atlantic, thus rates for West to East business have fallen slightly. WS 57.25 stands as last done for Brazil to the Far East. Overall the market is tight in the East. Modern VLCC tonnage isn’t long on the ground and we feel the market will increase for natural dates, the spread of ownership of those ships is also thin. So, it should get busier once IE week is over.
Suezmax
Not much to report, which doesn’t bode well for the market, as seen in the broad softening of BDTI. West Africa availabilities keep rising while volumes remain weak, pressuring TD20 into the mid 80s. With IE week’s packed schedules, some bbls may be moving quietly, but when information is scarce, sentiment inevitably wanes.
Stateside, Suesmax activity has started to pick up but the Aframaxes continue to dominate. Supply remains in charterers’ favor for 145kt parcels, with at least half a dozen safe ships available for mid 1st decade March. Rates will likely correct to WS 75 for USG/TA.
In the East, surface activity remains quiet, aside from a few Indian quotes. The list looks balanced for Eastbound, with ample older tonnage keeping the market steady and limiting upside potential. However, 20T crane-fitted vessels are in shorter supply, making Basrah bbls sensitive with possible upside if the volume emerges.
Stateside, Suesmax activity has started to pick up but the Aframaxes continue to dominate. Supply remains in charterers’ favor for 145kt parcels, with at least half a dozen safe ships available for mid 1st decade March. Rates will likely correct to WS 75 for USG/TA.
In the East, surface activity remains quiet, aside from a few Indian quotes. The list looks balanced for Eastbound, with ample older tonnage keeping the market steady and limiting upside potential. However, 20T crane-fitted vessels are in shorter supply, making Basrah bbls sensitive with possible upside if the volume emerges.
Aframax
With IE week in full swing market activity on the surface has been limited. Natural dates are pushing into the end of the first decade and we have seen some stems taken on bigger ships which is limiting available cargo for Aframax. Ballasting out of the area is still an attractive prospect for the early tonnage.
Limited activity being reported in the region. Vessels still showing interest in the Mediterranean from the North Sea adding to a long list of vessels that need to be employed before owners can hold some ground here. With action in the USG we might lose some vessels to ballasting stateside, but at this point it is unlikely to support this market without increased activity here.
Limited activity being reported in the region. Vessels still showing interest in the Mediterranean from the North Sea adding to a long list of vessels that need to be employed before owners can hold some ground here. With action in the USG we might lose some vessels to ballasting stateside, but at this point it is unlikely to support this market without increased activity here.
Dry Bulk
Capesize
On the West Australia front, we see a significant uptick in enquiries from operators and tenders alike for 10 March onwards dates. Some were seeking forward tonnage for end March and few enquired for full April dates primarily on an index linked basis. Enquiries for East Australia coal and other fronts of the Pacific have ticked up slightly as well, adding to the overall optimism of the market as we approach mid-week. On C3 ex Brazil to China and West Africa, we see a majority of enquiries for second half of March dates. Far East spot is growing increasingly thin compared to volume of cargoes in the market. Ballasting tonnage is slowly thinning as well for second half of March dates. Though notably, we still see several free candidates for first half of March. On C5, we have crossed the USD 8 pmt mark as we approach mid-week. On C3, fixtures concluded in the USD 19 to USD 19.70 pmt levels as we approach mid-week.
Panamax
The Panamax market experienced a sluggish and softer tone this week, with sentiment remaining mixed across both basins. In the Atlantic, the North remained quiet with limited fresh inquiries, while ECSA fronthaul activity retreated, leading to a buildup of available tonnage. The Pacific showed signs of pressure as coal and grain volumes eased, with some demand shifting to Capesizes. While early signs of seasonal strength in March remain possible, uncertainty prevails as fundamentals remain fragile, and further corrections could emerge unless fresh cargo inflows materialize.
Supramax
The geared market experienced mixed activity over the past few days. While sentiment remained positive, the US Gulf lacked fresh demand, keeping rates stable, though some owners resisted lower levels. The South Atlantic showed both upward pressure and balance, while Asia remained strong but may have peaked. The Mediterranean-Continent market gained ground with fresh inquiries, whereas the US Gulf struggled with limited momentum. Few fresh enquiries in Indian Ocean region after a short hiatus but market remains flat. Pacific market is firm. The week ended quietly, with positive sentiment persisting despite slower activity in both the Atlantic and Asian basins. Period market remains active.
Gas
Chartering
EAST
March spot fixing count in the Middle East is already on par with average count for the first two months of the year. However, the positions list for second half March is still looking plentiful. Owners are hoping for a steady flow of spot cargos in the second half of March in order to maintain current freight levels. Delays in India cannot carry the market on its own – but it may help keep a floor on freight.
WEST
The week started off pretty slow with much of the industry gathered in London for IE Week. The market has since picked up pace with several deals done and April fixing is well underway. In total we count 30 spot fixtures in March and 6 in April ex USG/USEC. On the position list we still find 5 open position able to work March dates before we shift all focus towards April. Last done at low 90s H/C and mid/high 40s H/F.
March spot fixing count in the Middle East is already on par with average count for the first two months of the year. However, the positions list for second half March is still looking plentiful. Owners are hoping for a steady flow of spot cargos in the second half of March in order to maintain current freight levels. Delays in India cannot carry the market on its own – but it may help keep a floor on freight.
WEST
The week started off pretty slow with much of the industry gathered in London for IE Week. The market has since picked up pace with several deals done and April fixing is well underway. In total we count 30 spot fixtures in March and 6 in April ex USG/USEC. On the position list we still find 5 open position able to work March dates before we shift all focus towards April. Last done at low 90s H/C and mid/high 40s H/F.
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